Taiwan Level 4 warning
14.5%Current Kalshi probability
- Ticker
- KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
- Quote
- 14¢ / 15¢
- Status
- Active
- Resolution
- 2027.01.01
- As of
- Quote as of 2026.05.27 02:23 UTC
Category note · Geopolitical conflict
Taiwan Level 4 warning
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before January 1, 2027?
Resolves on 2027.01.01. The market trades at 14.5% as of 2026.05.27 — implying low odds the answer is yes. Linked to 9 S&P 500 names including MU, INTC, LRCX, AMAT, TXN.
Market map
Referenced companies by sector
9 companies shown · 0 more referenced
Information Technology
9 referenced
Companies referenced
MUINTCLRCXAMATTXNKLACQCOMADITER
Micron Technology
Micron Technology is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.
Intel
Intel is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.
Lam Research
Lam Research is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Applied Materials
Applied Materials is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Texas Instruments
Texas Instruments is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.
KLA Corporation
KLA Corporation is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
Qualcomm
Qualcomm is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.
Analog Devices
Analog Devices is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductors.
Teradyne
Teradyne is included because the market references a public business driver linked to Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.